Once in our lives, weโve tried playing carnival games.
Who wouldnโt be enticed to play a game or two? With the cheerful atmosphere of fun and prizes, we can take out a few bucks to see how much we fair in these chance games. But are we getting our moneyโs worth from them?
Mark Rober used statistics and science to prove that carnival games are a scam.
Well, not totally a scam, but these games are designed that itโd be impossible for someone to win the games. He went to a particular carnival and had his team collect data on all 24 carnival games in a full game. Their data includes how many times each game was played, how many times people won each game, and the prize they want.
He divided the games into three categories. Letโs start with the Random Chance Games.
According to Mark, these are games that donโt involve any skill. In other words, based on chance. You can calculate your chance of winning by dividing the winning outcomes by the total outcomes; thatโs your winning percentage. Not bad, right?
But hereโs the catchโฆ (Thereโs always one, of course!)
Usually, the materials used in these games are lightweight and have a high coefficient of restitution. Simply put, they bounce off well and make it less likely that the ball will end up where you initially aimed compared to materials that are weighted.
The next game category is Skill-Based Games which requires specific skills.
This includes basketball shot, milk bottle throw, or basket toss games that require some skill (like shooting) or strategy to increase your chance of winning. It would be easy for someone who plays the sport to win games in these categories.
The catch? (Yes, you were expecting weโll say this.)
They make subtle changes to the setup to set you off than your usual muscle-memory three-point shot or baseball throw. For example, in the basketball shot, the standard three-pointer is 24 feet from the rim and has a height of 10 feet off the ground. But in this case, the line is 28 feet back on a rim, and the rim is 11 feet high.
Lastly, there are the games that are just โborderline scamsโ because thereโs zero chance of winning them.
These games look easy to the players, but if you look deeper into a scientific viewpoint of the gamesโ setup, youโll find it nearly impossible to win these games. You can watch the full video below for his explanation, including comparative examples applying scientific concepts to it.
But for Mark, these shouldnโt be a reason not to go to carnivals anymore.
He said that you can still go and find enjoyment in them but manage your expectations for winning. If youโre out there to have fun, then go. But if youโre aiming to get those prizes of stuffed toys lined up, youโll save more if you buy them in the store or online.
The cost of the number of tries you make until you win is higher than buying the prize in stores.
His example on chance games gives you these odds: if you got lucky and one on your first throw, it would cost you $1.50 for a prize that cost them 45 cents. But you usually donโt get it on your first try. Statistically speaking, it would take you an average of five times to land in a yellow cup, which means you pay $7.50 for something that cost them 45 cents.
Yes, you can still go and have fun, but donโt expect any โreturn of investmentโ at the end of the day.
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